Modelling soil erosion by water under future climate change: Addressing methodological gaps

• A methodology to select climate models model future soil erosion is proposed. under land use changes The most likely best- and worst-case scenarios are developed. Results show that will increase the mean of scenarios. Winter wheat an economically viable option reduce erosion. Soil by water from arable poses a serious threat on-field agricultural productivity wider environment through off-site damage. Multiple studies change worsen impacts in various regions. However, these limited (1) lack any thorough evaluation process applying drive models, (2) failure consider role changing change, despite evidence it more important than rainfall driving increased Using WEPP model, methodological gaps addressed this study for small catchment Belgium both heavily impacted boasting extensive array mitigation measures. We develop novel comprehensive rigorously efficiently suitable specifically simulating water, examine impact range environmentally choices on main findings reveal our selection successful generating widest number compared with other methods. Our reveals magnitude frequency events considerably all between 2041 2100 existing management. represents choice effectively mitigate when alternatives full This research illuminates importance carefully tuned modelling so can be adequately prepared climate.